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1、山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文鄭州市商品住宅價(jià)格形成機理及趨勢預測姓名:馬希明申請學(xué)位級別:碩士專(zhuān)業(yè):管理科學(xué)與工程指導教師:張所地2011-03-14鄭州市商品住宅價(jià)格形成機理及趨勢預測 II Abstract Real Estate industry has become to be the important pillar of China's economic development As the

2、 reform further development. The housing market is an important edition piece of real estate industry, its price fluctuation will directly influence the residents welfare. Due to our housing pr

3、ices fluctuate have the significant influence to livelihoods and economic development, therefore, to fully recognize and understand city residential price influence factors and mechanism has the i

4、mportant practical significance.This article through the literature study and field survey to definite the commodity housing price influence factors, established the multivariate linear regression m

5、odel and the time series model, analyzed the factors of commodity housing price, forecasted the future trend of commodity house price in Zhengzhou for next three years, the main work is as f

6、ollows: 1. Built system of influencing factors on commercial housing prices in Zhengzhou. The author analyzed the influence factors of commodity house price in Zhengzhou, based on the related li

7、terature at home and abroad, on the basis of Zhengzhou commodity residential house, constructing the price index system model of factors in macro and micro, in the process the author not only

8、 consider general influence factors, but also consider the consumer expectations of commodity house price, and land price variable land was quantized by floor price at the first, which makes t

9、he empirical results more close to reality. 2. Established the multivariate linear regression model, It is concluded that the influence degree of the various factors of commodity housing price

10、and its action mechanism . Through empirical analysis, the author finally found that education facilities, floor, facing and park green etc in micro factors and floor price, inflation rate, the

11、 amount of working people and so on in macro factors will have a great impact and fluctuation on commodity house price in Zhengzhou, and confirmed the operation mechanism of the effect factor

12、s. 3. Used the method of time series analysis to predict the tendency of commercial housing price in Zhengzhou for next three years. On the basis of empirical analysis results on macro influe

13、nce factors of commodity house price by using time series analysis method, the price tendency of Zhengzhou in three years of future has been predicted, the author found in the next three yea

14、rs, the commodity house price in Zhengzhou will rise about 1000 yuan per square metre each year, this conclusion is consistent with the reality. 【Keywords】Commercial Housing Price;Price Forming

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